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HOISINGTON The Fed Has Failed And Will Continue To Fail To

HOISINGTON The Fed Has Failed And Will Continue To Fail To

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Hoisington Investment Management Company

Hoisington Investment Management

Four important considerations exist today that were not present in past cycles and that may magnify the current restraining actions of the Federal Reserve:

CPI Since QE1 Hoisington

At point A, the money supply did not decelerate prior to the 1923 recession, but money velocity fell as the economy became increasingly leveraged.

hoisington

Hoisington Investment Management. The Fed, of ...

... the current Fed tightening cycle will not end any differently. hoisington.2017.apr.chart.6

While the brunt of monetary policy will impact economic growth increasingly over the next two years, the longer run view of economic conditions will be ...

Being out of step with the goals of a counter-cyclical monetary policy will arise as long as the Fed keys its decision-making on unemployment and inflation, ...

Hoisington Investment Management. The second economic reality is the failure of the Federal Reserve ...

Traditionally, money and credit slowdowns have resulted in tighter bank lending standards, and this is currently the case. In the first quarter survey of ...

However, median households hold a small portion of equities, and thus received minimal wealth benefit.

During all of the Fed actions since 2008 the velocity of money has plummeted and now stands at a five decade low (Chart 5).

However, median households hold a small portion of equities, and thus received minimal wealth benefit.

The other element that is required for the Fed to shift the aggregate demand curve outward is the velocity or turnover of money over which they also have no ...

Excessive Debt Leads to Extended Episodes of Low Interest Rates

hoisington.2017.jan.chart.1

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Chart 6: The Fed Prematurely Attempted to Normalize Rates in 1936-1937

The AD curve slopes downward and indicates the amount of real GDP that would be purchased at each aggregate price level (Chart 6).

hoisington.2017.apr.chart.2

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Beginning in 2015, large banks as well as banks with substantial foreign exposure are required to have a 100% or greater “liquidity coverage ratio” (LCR).

hoisington.2017.jan.chart.2

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook, First Quarter 2018

Meanwhile, Hoisington Investment Management's Dr. Lacy Hunt has been one of the few unabashed Treasury bulls operating in the market, refusing to cut back ...

ben bernanke fed fail

Hoisington Management Q4 2015 REPORT - PDF DOWNLOAD

Shrieking US share market drowns out the warning cry from bonds | afr.com

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 4Q2016. The 2016 presidential election has ...

The Hoisington Dispatch from Hoisington, Kansas on September 19, 1918 · Page 1

The Hoisington Dispatch from Hoisington, Kansas on October 9, 1913 · Page 3

The misinterpretations pertain to a key point in R&R's book and accusations of data inaccuracies in the statistical calculations.

Reflecting the inflationary psychology of the higher stock and commodity prices, mortgage rates and municipal bond yields have risen significantly since QE2 ...

In the aftermath of all these debt-induced panics, long-term Treasury bond yields declined, respectively, from 3.5%, 3.6% and 5.5 % to the extremely low ...

In highly indebted countries, governments have expansively taken resources from the private sector through taxing and borrowing.

hoisington.2017.jan.chart.3

Developed World Bond Yields Plunge To Record Lows 6 June 2016 Zero Hedge

Crushing investors who get it right and propping up a overvalued stock market. I would love for a mainstream media outlet to pick this up. The Fed ...

This long empirical record, as well as economic theory, indicates that the current Fed tightening cycle will not end any differently.

Chart 19: Soaring YOY Price Changes in Combined Crude Oil and US Treasury Yields Suggest Either a Recession or a Growth Slowdown Could Occur

That is about three-fifths less than the 8.5% saving rate level that has existed since 1900 (Chart 1). As recently as five years ago the saving rate was ...

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook | Outside the Box Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

Priscilla Hoisington

Charts: Hoisington and Citi

Chart 12: Low Savings Rates Indicate Low Future Spending and GDP

The situation in the business sector deserves particular scrutiny. Business debt surged to a record 72.6% of GDP in 2016, for the first time eclipsing the ...

As you see, velocity has been falling for quite a few years now, so by itself this indicator doesn't signal imminent doom. But the further below average it ...

Lacy Hunt is the author of two books, and numerous articles in leading magazines, periodicals and scholarly journals. Included among the publishers of his ...

Second, the subsequent investigations of the MGA leak offers evidence of the systematic nature of informal communication between the Fed and the financial ...

I'll wrap up our SIC Speaker Series next week with Mauldin Economics' very own Jared Dillian, intrepid editor of The 10th Man, The Daily Dirtnap, ...

What the "Yield Curve" Predicts for the Economy

If the Fed were to stay on its current course of two more rate hikes this year, recession risk is unlikely to rise significantly until late 2017.

... several reasons (beyond the absence of a world war) speak against such gloom: first, leaders from Europe, Canada, China and elsewhere in EM continue to ...

Fed up with fake markets (but still in the money ytd).

In other words, to compensate for easier financial conditions, the Fed would need to add close to one additional hike.

In other words, to compensate for easier financial conditions, the Fed would need to add close to one additional hike.

Bearish long-end factors: As seen in Figure 3, one reason why the curve flattened in 2017 was 10-year rates were stuck in a range, while the Fed was hiking ...

LOGO

Chart 4: The Growth of Zombie Corporations and the Decline of Productivity Growth Due To Capital Misallocation

Little m is primarily determined by swings in currency held by the public, the Treasury's deposits at the Fed, excess reserves of the depository ...

Inside The Black Box: The Failure Of Mainstream Economics, Part II | Seeking Alpha

And it's the pickup in core inflation which will complicate the backdrop because this is the measure the Fed and investors pay attention to (click on image, ...

As I stated in my recent comment on the Fed's balance of risks, all this talk about the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and its impact on the economy is ...

HOISINGTON: Quantitative Easing Has Been Devasting For America - Business Insider

Due to the aging of America, the mandatory components of federal spending will accelerate sharply over the next decade, causing government outlays as a ...

Chart 6: US Public Debt Has Grown Exponentially

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 4Q2015 | Outside the Box Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

More revealing will be the tone of the language in the FOMC statement. Despite the soft Q1 GDP figure, one of the key indicators to watch will be core PCE ...

The Federal Reserve has initiated the fifteenth tightening cycle since 1945 (Chart 1). Conspicuously, in 80% of the prior fourteen episodes, ...

Now it all hinges on the Fed and the pace of those rate hikes, but for now the markets are happy to be risk-on.”

This reduction in real income can be traced, in part, to the misguided attempts to spur economic growth by the Federal Reserve via quantitative easing (QE2) ...

However, plotting the quarterly percent changes in real per capita PCE against percent changes in consumer confidence from 1967 through the third ...

After All The Fed Has a 100 year money devaluation record to uphold

Why millennials see the 10-year work anniversary as a personal failure

Massive interventions in the economy and markets by the Federal Reserve and the other major central banks since 2007 may have staved off financial ...

Lacy Hunt, the well-known bond bull at Hoisington Investment Management, told Bloomberg in an interview that:

Click on the photo below if you are interested in joining. Note, if you sign up you'll also be able to get a link to the replay if you are unable to attend ...

The cumulative Advance/Declines in several major market indices are trending higher and on the brink of more new highs.

The prospect of renewed weakness in the Chinese yuan and two interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year will boost the ...

Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard

BERKELEY – In December 2015, the US Federal Reserve embarked on a monetary-tightening cycle, by raising the target range for the short-term nominal federal ...

a crash which would not be there had the Fed not intervened in 2008/9 and blown yet another bubble to mitigate the collapse and natural implosion of the ...

Chart 25: Collapsing Global Credit Impulse Similar in Scale to 2008

The Pensford Letter - 05.04.2015 | Federal Reserve System | Yield (Finance)

Lacy Hunt: 5 Impediments To Trumpian Growth (And Why Bond Yields Are Going Lower) | Zero Hedge

Gordon T Long :: Tipping Points & Synthesis of Global Macro Economic Issues

Chart 18: Falling Federal Corporate Tax Receipts Suggest a Recession Is Possible

It is quiet evident the financial markets, and by extension, the economy, have become tied to Central Bank interventions. As shown in the chart below, ...

Since the Fed desperately needs inexperienced, "weak-hand" shorts to reenter stocks to facilitate its "transmission mechanisms" (all of which can be ...

Personal spending growth has averaged 2.4% since the recession ended in 2009, less than the 3% of the previous expansion and 4.3% from 1982-90.

Asia Welcomes Fed Move as Policy Makers Warn of Outflow Risks 16 December 2015 Bloomberg

According to Hoisington and Hunt, the ratio of nonfinancial debt-to-GDP rose to 248.6% at the end of 2015, higher than the previous record of 245.5% set in ...

Party leaders expect the capital write-offs would encourage more investment and growth and greater worker productivity, but not the debt often associated ...